Recession and Divorce in the United States, 2008–2011

Recession may increase divorce through a stress mechanism, or reduce divorce by exacerbating cost barriers or strengthening family bonds. After establishing an individual-level model predicting US women’s divorce, the paper tests period effects, and whether unemployment and foreclosures are associated with the odds of divorce using the 2008–2011 American Community Survey. Results show a downward spike in the divorce rate after 2008, almost recovering to the expected level by 2011, which suggests a negative recession effect. On the other hand, state foreclosure rates are positively associated with the odds of divorce with individual controls, although this effect is not significant when state fixed effects are introduced. State unemployment rates show no effect on odds of divorce. Future research will have to determine why national divorce odds fell during the recession, while state-level economic indicators were not strongly associated with divorce. Exploratory analysis which shows unemployment decreasing divorce odds for those with college degrees, while foreclosures have the opposite effect, provide one possible avenue for such research.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

• Get 10 units per month
• Download Article/Chapter or eBook
• 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
• Cancel anytime

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (France)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Rent this article via DeepDyve

Similar content being viewed by others

Divorce and the cost of housing: evidence from Iran

Divorce and the business cycle: a cross-country analysis

Simultaneity and selection in financial hardship and divorce

Notes

The analysis that follows is slightly different because it includes only those women age 20 and older who were living in the US 12 months before the survey.

References

• Amato, P. R. (2010). Research on divorce: Continuing trends and new developments. Journal of Marriage and the Family,72(3), 560–666. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Amato, P. R., & Beattie, B. (2011). Does the unemployment rate affect the divorce rate? An analysis of state data 1960–2005. Social Science Research,40(3), 705–715. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Bulanda, J. R., & Brown, S. L. (2007). Race-ethnic differences in marital quality and divorce. Social Science Research,36(3), 945–967. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2013a). Local area unemployment statistics. http://www.bls.gov/lau/. Accessed August 23, 2013.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2013b). Labor force statistics from the current population survey (unemployment rate). http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000. Accessed August 25, 2013.
• Chowdhury, A. (2012). Til recession do us part: Booms, busts and divorce in the United States. Applied Economics Letters,20(3), 255–261. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Cvrcek, T. (2011). U.S. marital disruptions and their economic and social correlates, 1860-1948. Journal of Family History,36(2), 142–158. Google Scholar
• Douthat, R. (2009). Evaluations: Marriage and the recession. New York Times. Blog post, December 8. http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/08/marriage-and-the-recession/. Accessed June 30, 2011.
• Elliott, D. B., Simmons, T., Lewis, J. M. (2010). Evaluation of the marital events items on the ACS. US Census Bureau working paper. http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/marriage/data/acs/Evaluation_paper.pdf. Accessed June 29, 2011.
• Elmer, P. J., Seelig, S. A. (1998). The rising long-term trend of single-family mortgage foreclosure rates. Federal deposit insurance corporation working paper 98-2. http://ssrn.com/abstract=126128. Accessed June 20, 2011.
• Farber, H. S. 2011. Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historical Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984–2010. National bureau of economic research working paper 17040. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17040. Accessed June 30, 2011.
• Federal Housing Finance Agency. (2011). House Price Index.http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=296. Accessed June 30, 2011.
• Gascon, C. S. 2009. This Is Not Your Father’s Recession … or Is It?. The Regional Economist (April):6–12.
• Hansen, H.-T. (2005). Unemployment and marital dissolution: A panel data study of norway. European Sociological Review,21(2), 135–148. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Hardie, J. H., & Lucas, A. (2010). Economic factors and relationship quality among young couples: Comparing cohabitation and marriage. Journal of Marriage and Family,72(5), 1141–1154. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Hellerstein, J. K., Morrill, M. S. (2011). Booms, Busts, and Divorce. BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy,11(1), Article 54. Google Scholar
• Hurd, M. D., Rohwedder, S. (2010) Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households. National bureau of economic research working paper 16407. http://www.nber.org/papers/w16407. Accessed June 30, 2011.
• Isen, A., Stevenson, B. (2010). Women’s education and family behavior: Trends in marriage, divorce and fertility. National bureau of economic research working paper series no. 15725.
• Kreider R. M. (2010). Increase in opposite-sex cohabiting couples from 2009 to 2010 in the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Housing and household economic statistics division working paper. http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/Inc-Opp-sex-2009-to-2010.pdf. Accessed June 30, 2011.
• Kreider, R. M., Ellis, R. (2011). Number, timing, and duration of marriages and divorces: 2009. U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Reports (pp. 70–125).
• Lewin, A. C. (2005). The effect of economic stability on family stability among welfare recipients. Evaluation Review,29, 223–240. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Martin, S. P. (2006). Trends in marital dissolution by women’s education in the United States. Demographic Research,15, 537–559. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Martin, T. C., & Bumpass, L. L. (1989). Recent trends in marital disruption. Demography,26(1), 37–51. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Mattingly, M. J., & Smith, K. E. (2010). Changes in wives’ employment when husbands stop working: A recession-prosperity comparison. Family Relation,59, 343–357. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Mian, A., Sufi, A., Trebbi, F. (2011). Foreclosures, house prices, and the real economy. National bureau of economic research working paper 16685. http://www.nber.org/papers/w16685. Accessed June 30, 2011.
• Morgan, S. P., Cumberworth, E., & Wimer, C. (2011). The great recession’s influence on fertility, marriage, divorce, and cohabitation. In D. Grusky, B. Western, & C. Wimer (Eds.), The great recession (pp. 220–246). New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Google Scholar
• National Bureau of Economic Research. (2010). Statement from the business cycle dating committee, September 20.http://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html. Accessed August 25, 2013.
• Ono, H. (1998). Husbands’ and wives’ resources and marital dissolution. Journal of Marriage and Family,60(3), 674–689. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Phillips, J. A., & Sweeney, M. M. (2006). Can differential exposure to risk factors explain recent racial and ethnic variation in marital disruption? Social Science Research,35(2), 409–434. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Realtytrac. (2007). More than 1.2 million foreclosure filings reported in 2006.http://www.realtytrac.com/content/press-releases/more-than-12-million-foreclosure-filings-reported-in-2006-2234. Accessed August 23, 2013.
• Realtytrac. (2008). US foreclosure activity increases 75 percent in 2007.http://www.realtytrac.com/content/press-releases/us-foreclosure-activity-increases-75-percent-in-2007-3604. Accessed June 29, 2011.
• Realtytrac. (2009). 2008 year end foreclosure market report.http://www.realtytrac.com/content/news-and-opinion/2008-year-end-foreclosure-market-report-4621. Accessed June 29, 2011.
• Realtytrac. (2010). A record 2.8 million properties receive foreclosure notices in 2009. http://www.realtytrac.com/landing/2009-year-end-foreclosure-report.html. Accessed June 29, 2011.
• Ruggles, S. J., Alexander, T., Genadek, K., Goeken, R., Schroeder, M. B., & Sobek, M. (2010). Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center.
• Schoen, R., & Canudas-Romo, V. (2006). Timing effects on divorce: 20th century experience in the United States. Journal of Marriage and Family,68(3), 749–758. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Stevenson, B., & Wolfers, J. (2007). Marriage and divorce: Changes and their driving forces. Journal of Economic Perspectives,21(2), 27–52. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• Sutton P. D., Hamilton, B. E., Mathews, T. J. (2011). Recent decline in births in the United States, 2007–2009. National Center for Health Statistics data brief 60.http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db60.pdf. Accessed June 30, 2011.
• Tejada-Vera B., Sutton, P. D. (2010). Births, marriages, divorces, and deaths: Provisional data for 2009. National Vital Statistics Reports,58(25). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_25.pdf.
• Sweeney, M. M., & Phillips, J. A. (2004). Understanding racial differences in marital disruption: Recent trends and explanations. Journal of Marriage and Family,66(3), 639–650. ArticleGoogle Scholar
• White, L., & Rogers, S. J. (2000). Economic Circumstances and Family Outcomes: A Review of the 1990s. Journal of Marriage and Family,62(4), 1035–1051. Google Scholar
• Wilcox, W. B. (2009). The great recession’s silver lining?. In W. B Wilcox (Ed.), The state of our unions: Marriage in America, 2009. Charlottesville, VA: National Marriage Project.
• Wilcox, W. B. (2011). The great recession and marriage. National Marriage Project web release. http://www.virginia.edu/marriageproject/pdfs/NMP-GreatRecession.pdf. Accessed June 30, 2011.
• Williamson, R. (2009). Christmas cheer.http://rittertodundteufel.blogspot.com/2009/12/christmas-cheer.html. Accessed June 30, 2011.

Acknowledgments

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2012 meetings of the Population Association of America, and posted as a working paper online by the Maryland Population Research Center.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

1. Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, College Park, 2112 Art-Sociology Building, College Park, MD, 20742, USA Philip N. Cohen

1. Philip N. Cohen